EHJ February 2005

As I write this column, storms, gale force winds and floods have left three people dead, two missing and 250,000 homes without power across the north of England and Scotland. High winds have left a ferry stranded and three major highways closed due to lorries tumbling over. The Met Office has forecast more rain and gales of up to 145kmph likely to threaten homes and create hazardous driving conditions. In England and Wales, 10 flood warnings are in place with an additional 26 flood watches.

The most severe damage has been in Cumbria, particularly in the Carlisle area, where the three fatalities occurred and the worst flooding in over 180 years has left many schools, roads, homes, police and fire brigade headquarters closed. The media images of homes awash with water with their occupants huddled together in crisis centres are all the more poignant in the wake of the Southeast Asia tsunami disaster. Ironically in Hexham and surrounding areas of Northumberland up to 6,000 homes were left without water when two water mains were washed away by the floods.

The devastation caused by the Cumbrian floods and the catastrophic events of the Boxing Day earthquake quite apart from the loss and suffering to human life has resulted in millions of pounds of damage to homes, businesses, properties and the environment. The reconstruction will take many years and billions of pounds in aid. It has been speculated that some communities may never recover, something the survivors of the Boscastle flood know all too well.

The events of 16 August 2003, when a 3m tidal wave of water burst through the Cornish village after torrential rain causing river banks to burst and demolishing four buildings, ruining others and causing damage estimated at millions of pounds, still dominate the daily lives of the villagers. Five months on, much of the wreckage from the floods is still visible. There is also uncertainty over the future of some villagers as planning permission for rebuilding is suspended pending the publication of an Environment Agency study into the flood and the likelihood of it happening again.

So are these just random "acts of God"? Disasters, whether they are natural or as a result of man-made global warming, can be predicted and often are. At least 72 hours before the weekend storms crashed onto our shores news channels issued severe weather warnings. Yet it transpires that only several hours after homes had started to flood, two days into the storms, did the Environment Agency start phoning households to advise them to evacuate their homes.

We know that we have the ability and technology to create tsunami warning systems. Indeed, a system is already in place in the Pacific basin, which has saved countless lives. Yet officials still debate the "value" of a warning system for the Indian ocean and whether it would be cost effective and save "enough" people.

The government backed Foresight flood and coastal defence report, published last year, predicts that much of East Anglia's coastline could disappear under water if drastic action is not taken soon. It reveals that the cost of damage from flooding and coastal erosion in Britain could rise by 20 times over the next century - from about £1bn a year to more than £20bn by 2080. The dangers are apparent so how much more warning do we really need?